As President Donald Trump intensifies his second-term campaign to roll back LGBTQ+ rights, new polling suggests that his relentless attacks on transgenderpeople are gaining traction with the public, despite broad disapproval of his presidency overall. LGBTQ+ advocates say this slide requires accurate media representation of trans lives

Public opinion is shifting to restriction

According to a national survey released Saturday by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, a majority of Americans—68 percent—now say gender is determined by sex assigned at birth. Two-thirds oppose public insurance programs like Medicare or Medicaid covering gender-affirming carefor minors. And nearly half of the respondents support banning such care for trans youth altogether, regardless of who pays for it.

Among Republicans, opposition to both youth and adult access to gender-affirming care is overwhelming. Independents are more likely to oppose than support, and even among Democrats, 44 percent oppose public coverage of care for minors, while only 30 percent support it. Resistance also extends to transgender adults, with nearly one-third of Democrats and most independents and Republicans expressing disapproval of publicly-funded care.

Yet, in one area, public sentiment is more complex. When asked whether transgender men and women should be allowed to serve in the military, 37 percent of adults said yes, while 26 percent opposed it. Thirty-six percent remained neutral. That split, which shows greater openness than on other trans-related issues, may reflect years of advocacy and public storytelling from transgender service members, especially amid ongoing legal challenges to Trump’s renewed military ban.

A misinformation strategy that’s working

Despite widespread disapproval of his leadership—Trump’s overall job approval stands at 41 percent—his approval rating on handling transgender issues is nearly 10 points higher. That disparity has alarmed LGBTQ+ advocates, who say it reflects the success of targeted disinformation and a coordinated right-wing strategy to scapegoat trans people for political gain.

Caleb Smith, LGBTQI+ Policy Director at the Center for American Progress, said the findings reveal the results of years of manufactured outrage and misinformation. “The poll released by AP-NORC shows much of what we expect to see after years of the right’s relentless, unscientific, partisan attacks on transgender people,” Smith told The Advocate. “While Trump’s approval rating is historically, alarmingly low, it’s easy to look at these numbers and think anti-trans messages are a winning issue for him. In reality, he’s far underwater on most topics, and the slight approval bump Trump may get from targeting transgender people seems to be more of a pool noodle rather than the life raft his presidency needs to get back towards national approval.”

Visibility gap fuels misunderstanding

Smith added that the poll underscores the urgent need for solidarity and continued visibility. “It’s concerning to see any part of the country agree with anti-trans rhetoric, and it’s crucial for us to continue to show strong and vocal support for the transgender community—particularly transgender young people. No poll detracts from the reality that transgender people—just like the rest of us—deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, deserve access to health care, and deserve not to be obsessively targeted by an administration looking for cheap political wins.” 

Part of the challenge, LGBTQ+ advocates say, is visibility. According to GLAAD’sAccelerating Acceptance 2023 study, less than 30 percent of non-LGBTQ+ Americans say they know a transgender person.

The ongoing shift in public attitudes is occurring alongside an unprecedented nationwide assault on LGBTQ+ rights. According to the American Civil Liberties Union, at least 575 anti-LGBTQ+ bills have been introduced in state legislatures across the country in 2025 alone. These bills target everything from accurate IDs and school bathroom access to gender-affirming health care and free speech in classrooms. The ACLU warns that even proposals that fail to pass into law still fuel a climate of fear, spread harmful misinformation, and deepen stigma against LGBTQ+ people.

Executive orders and legal battles

Although he began with transphobic ads during the 2024 election, Trump’s renewed attacks on transgender rights started the moment he returned to power. On Inauguration Day, he signed Executive Order 14183, declaring that the federal government would no longer recognize transgender or nonbinary people. The directive redefined sex in federal policy strictly as male or female based on birth characteristics, and ordered agencies to strip references to gender identity from all guidance, services, and legal protections. Passports, Social Security records, school policies, and shelter access are among the areas now being rewritten to exclude transgender Americans. 

At the same time, his administration has revoked federal funding for gender-affirming health care, moved to bar transgender students from using bathrooms aligned with their gender identity, and resumed enforcement of a military ban targeting trans service members.

In March, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes blocked enforcement of Trump’s military ban, ruling in Talbott v. United States that the policy likely violates constitutional protections. Reyes called the ban “soaked in animus and dripping with pretext,” and cited the Department of Defense’s data showing that the military spends far more on Viagra than it does on trans-related care. Last week, while considering a stay on a preliminary injunction in a similar case, Shilling v. USA, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the ban to go into effect while appeals continued, handing Trump a temporary legal victory.

“We can beat back the bullshit”

At a recent EMILY’s List gala in Washington, D.C., U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride—the first out transgender member of Congress—confronted the political strategy behind these attacks. “Every single time they say the word ‘trans,’ look at what they’re doing with their grubby hands,” she said. “They’re trying to pick the pocket of American workers.”

McBride vowed she would not be used as a distraction for the GOP’s broader economic agenda. “I’m not going to let them bait me into a fight that simply rewards their attempt at 15 minutes of fame,” she said. “We can beat back the bullshit. We can win back power.”

GLAAD warns against interpreting public opinion as a legitimate gauge of civil rights. “There are going to be a few problems with a poll that asks people about the human rights of other people,” a spokesperson told The Advocate. “In this country, we are guaranteed the right to be treated equally and not be discriminated against, and that is not up to public opinion.”

The GLAAD spokesperson highlighted that of the few Americans who say they know a trans person, fewer still understand the medical, legal, or familial realities of their lives, especially as right-wing politicians and donors pour resources into misinformation campaigns. 

“The poll shows it remains urgent that media include transgender voices in stories about trans people. The poll shows support for transgender people in the military after months and years of GLAAD and others in the community helping trans troops bravely tell their own stories while they show up every day to capably and honorably serve,” the spokesperson said. “When you meet and get to know people in person or through inclusive and accurate stories, understanding and acceptance grow.”