Perspectives

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Continuing the Fight for Equality: The Ongoing Struggle Against Anti-Drag Legislation

“There has been an onslaught of attacks against our innocent children,” Kentucky state representative Lindsey Tichenor said as she put forth a bill banning drag performances to her state assembly. 

She’s right about one thing. Our children are under attack, not from drag queens, though, but from hate and intolerance. 

Another bill in Idaho would allow parents to be sued up to $10,000 for watching certain shows featuring “sexual content,” and many argue that the language wields a strategic undertone targeting drag shows. Both the Kentucky and Idaho bills have advanced out of committee, and momentum will likely carry them to their respective governor’s desks. In fact, a wave of Republican lawmakers introduced at least 26 bills to restrict drag events in 14 US states early in the 2023 legislative session.

Tennessee’s state legislature, however, moved the fastest.

On Thursday, March, Tennessee became the first state among the pack to sharply restrict drag performances. The state’s governor, Bill Lee, signed a bill banning the shows on public property and in places where minors could watch them. The bill, reading almost like a zoning law, prohibits drag performances within 1,000 feet of schools, public parks, or places of worship. Violators face misdemeanor charges in the first instance, punishable by a fine up to $2,500 and/or up to a year in jail, with more severe consequences for repeat offenders.

Some suggest that maybe the law won’t be as far-reaching as the authors of these bills would hope, according to the A.C.L.U. of Tennessee. “The law bans obscene performances, and drag performances are not inherently obscene,” Stella Yarbrough, the legal director of the A.C.L.U. of Tennessee, said in a statement.

The Tennessee bill defines drag performers as “male or female impersonators.” It’s this imprecise language that has civil rights leaders also concerned. It’s part of a subtle and sinister way to criminalize further just being trans, some suggest. What defines drag? Who will define a male or female impersonator? Will people be arrested for just walking down the street for being trans next? These are important questions that the Tennessee bill leaves open for contemplation, leaving the safety of our LGBTQ+ community up for debate. 

“Perhaps it’s easier to make drag the bogeyman, because it’s seen as a profession,” San Francisco cabaret artist and performer Ryan Patrick Welsh (he/she/they) said. “It’s easier to attack a profession than it is to attack people, but actually nevermind we’re actually seeing both happen,” Ryan Patrick continued.

Making the anti-drag and anti-trans linkage even more apparent, Tennessee governor Bill Lee also recently signed separate legislation that bans transgender minors in Tennessee from receiving gender-affirming care like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgery. As Tennessee demonstrates the possible, there’s a dam of other restrictions to our civil rights ready to be unleashed, many fear. 

“Also, it has nothing to do with kids,” Ryan Patrick continued. As a key member of the Baloney crew, known for powerful vocal performances and gender-bending dance moves, Ryan Patrick says, “My shows aren’t for kids,” Ryan Patrick says. “But these parents who argue they’re protecting their kids are using their kids as a shield for their transphobic ideas. It’s they themselves that don’t want to see drag. That’s what’s really going on.” 

One hundred fifty years ago in San Francisco, Ryan Patrick’s performance would have been illegal. In 1863, as part of a broad anti-indecency campaign, San Francisco adopted a law that criminalized any person appearing in “dress not belonging to his or her sex.” In other words, anti-drag legislation isn’t new. The good news is that we’ve seen these sorts of attacks on our community before. These laws historically haven’t stood the test of time. We know how to mobilize and fight back just like the times before. 

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World Athletics bans trans women from female events

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World Athletics will ban trans women who have been through puberty from female competitions.

The governing body’s president, Sebastian Coe, said on Thursday afternoon (23 March) that “transgender athletes should not be competing in the female category”. 

Coe stated at a press conference in Monaco that trans women who transitioned after puberty “will not be allowed to participate in women’s events” from 31 March – Transgender Day of Visibility. 

Current rules allow trans women to compete if their testosterone level is sufficiently suppressed.

However, Coe said: “Where the science is insufficient to justify maintaining testosterone suppression for transgender athletes, the council agreed it must be guided by our overarching principle, which is to protect the female category.

“We cannot in all conscience leave our transgender regulations as they were at five nanomoles per litre for at least one year when we were unsure about the impact of doing so across all our disciplines. So we need to know more and we need to know more now.”

https://youtube.com/watch?v=J8vHIV9NEWI%3Ffeature%3Doembed%26enablejsapi%3D1

The decision to exclude trans women came after a consultation which included 40 member federations, athletes and trans organisations. 

Coe said: “The majority of those consulted stated that transgender athletes should not be competing in the female category.

“Many believe there is insufficient evidence that trans women do not retain advantage over biological women, and want more evidence that any physical advantages have been ameliorated before they are willing to consider an option for inclusion into the female category.”

He added that in order to conduct further research into its transgender eligibility guidelines, World Athletics will establish a working groups which will aim to “consult specifically with transgender athletes to seek views on competing in athletics” and to “review and maybe commission” additional research. 

The working group will be comprised of an independent chair, “up to three council members”, two athletes from the Athletes Commission, a transgender athlete from athletics, three representatives of non-member federations and representatives of the World Athletics Health and Science Department.

Alongside a ban on trans athletes, athletes deemed to have a so-called difference of sexual development (DSD) – will have their testosterone threshold reduced to 2.5 nanomoles per litre. The runner Caster Semenya has historically been excluded under DSD rules.

‘Exclusionary and discriminatory’

Inclusion of trans athletes in sport has been the source of much debate and moral hysteria in recent months, with many states in the US taking steps to ban trans people, including children, from taking part in sports. 

Reaction to the news was swift on social media, with one user saying they “don’t want to see any pride-washing from World Athletics” after excluding trans athletes. 

Another Twitter user described the move as “exclusionary and discriminatory policy based on artificial frenzy”. 

Football v Transphobia campaign lead Natalie Washington said: “The real story with World Athletics is the switch to 2.5nmol/L for athletes with sex variances. 

“It’s a scandal. The trans ban affects no-one at present. The athletes with sex variances ban could affect hundreds, thousands of women.”

In 2022 the International Olympics Committee dropped blanket rules on trans athletes, saying that agter extensive research it no longer deemed testosterone levels the most important factor in determining whether trans women should be allowed to compete.

However, in dropping its own policy, the IOC encouraged individual sports to set their own rules. As a result, some have introduced strict rules effectively banning trans women, such as swimming body FINA.

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School that refused to play team with trans player is barred from tournaments

A Vermont religious school that withdrew its girls’ basketball team from a playoff game because a transgender student was playing on the opposing team won’t be able to participate in future tournaments, the Vermont Principals’ Association announced Monday.

Mid Vermont Christian School, in White River Junction, forfeited the Feb. 21 game, saying that it believed that the transgender player “jeopardizes the fairness of the game and the safety of our players.”

Mid Vermont Christian School
Mid Vermont Christian School.Google Maps

The executive council of the principals’ association, which is the governing body for Vermont school sports and activities for member schools, ruled that the school had violated policies and is ineligible to participate in future tournaments that it sanctions. The move applies to all sports.

“The VPA again reiterates its ongoing support of transgender student-athletes as not only a part of building an inclusive community for each student to grow and thrive, but also as a clear expectation by Vermont state law(s) in the Agency of Education Best Practices, and in VPA Policy regarding transgender student athletes,” the association said in a statement.

It sent a letter to the school saying that Mid Vermont did not meet the association’s policies on race, gender and disability awareness.

The school did not respond to an email requesting comment.

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Meet the all-trans hockey team changing lives one game at a time

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As soon as Team Trans’ hockey players first stepped onto the ice four years ago, they felt something life-changing. They’d found a family for life. 

Mason LeFebvre joined Team Trans, an international collective of trans and non-binary hockey players, for its first event in Boston in November 2019. They played off against Boston Pride Hockey, an LGBTQ+ team that’s been around since the early 90s. 

It meant to a lot to Mason, who’d been playing hockey since he was 10. Finally, he was “getting to play with other people who had similar experiences”.

“Up to that point in my life, I’d only ever played with, as far as I was aware, cis people,” he tells PinkNews. “It was just about wanting to have that experience, to get to know other trans hockey players, because I hadn’t been able to do that.”

A Team Trans hockey player approaches the goal on skates while the goalie is posed on the ice in front of the goal
Goalie Mason LeFebvre says he never experienced the “concept of found family” until he joined Team Trans. (Ian DeGraff/Ian Steven Photography)

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Team Trans primarily plays internal draft tournaments all over North America, with all-trans teams playing against each other.

It relies on donations to fund travel and hosting events. The National Hockey League (NHL) is a supporter, both financially and vocally, defending the club on social media from bigotry.

Having begun as a collective of a few players, it has over the years involved hundreds of players, who’ve formed tight bonds.

“I hadn’t experienced the concept of found family until I joined Team Trans, and now my found family is a couple hundred people strong,” Mason says. “I’ve invited these players to come stay with me in my house for a weekend at events we’re hosting or just an open ended invitation in general.”

When they’re together, Mason says, it “almost doesn’t matter” that they’re trans – they can simply exist as people. That 2019 event sparked a deep love within him for Team Trans, and he stuck with the club for years, eventually joining its board.

Mason LeFebvre and Danny Maki smile at each other while wearing Team Trans hockey uniforms for a team photo
Mason LeFebvre and Danny Maki say they found a network of friends through Team Trans. (Ian DeGraff/Ian Steven Photography)

Danny Maki grew up in a “hockey family”. He started skating at age 2 – his parents tried to put figure skates on him, but he “absolutely hated them” – he wanted to play hockey like his older brothers. 

They joined Team Trans through a hockey community in Minnesota after being off the ice for about 10 years. 

“It was amazing, especially because when I joined I was already going through a hard time, and I didn’t have any trans friends that I could reach out to,” Danny says. “I was like hockey has always been good for me. I’ll start doing that again.”

Danny ended up becoming the vice president of the Twin Cities chapter.  It’s “opened up possibilities for meeting tons of people” and “going places” that he never thought of before. 

The locker room is often a serious obstacle for trans people, and Danny says one of his favourite things is being able to be comfortable with others in such a space. 

“I drove together with one person to Toronto, and she’s never been able to show in the locker room before,” Maki says. 

“She was able to do that without worry, and I was able to do that because nobody’s gonna care what I look like naked. Nobody gives a s**t, and just the general joy of – we didn’t do super well in Toronto – of still having fun.”

A Team Trans goalie poses in front of a goal while playing a hockey game
Mason LeFebvre says it was “powerful” to connect with the NHL because it made him realise “what an impact” Team Trans has “just by existing”. (Ian DeGraff/Ian Steven Photography)

There’s been some sadly predictable backlash to Team Trans, and Danny was mentioned in a few articles after getting injured on the ice. The headlines ran with the usual anti-trans voices disparaging trans inclusion in sports. 

Danny describes these “nasty articles” as “absolute rubbish” that is “putting a target on us”. However, they fuel him to “keep pushing forward and keep representing the possibilities for trans individuals”. 

“I imagine a young trans kid who loves hockey, they could see that we as Team Trans exist and will be available to them once they turn 18 (as of our policies right now),” they say. 

“This negative media, as cruddy and at times hurtful as it is, will not stop me from playing the sport I love and the sport that has kept me alive more times than I like to admit.”

Mason feels the same – he’s energised too by the support and love coming from within the community and allies. 

One of his highlights was received an email from the NHL, which wanted to film a Team Trans event he recalls thinking: “Holy s**t.”

“That was one of the most powerful things because it helped me realise what an impact we can and are having just by existing and showing there are more than just the 16 of us that originally showed up in Boston.”

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James Cooper was the first out LGBTQ person elected to the Oklahoma City Council

I’m a teacher and writer, loves of mine since I was six. I went to film school to study storytelling, media violence, its effects on society, and root causes of real-life violence and crime. This research guides my values, civic engagement, and work in our classrooms.

I was born in Midwest City—where my mother lives as a retired registered nurse—and I’ve lived in OKC’s historic Paseo neighborhood since 2010, serving in Oklahoma City Public Schools at Jefferson Middle School as an AVID college preparation teacher, where I helped students strengthen their reading, writing, group work, organization, and critical thinking skills. The same year I started teaching with OKCPS in 2015, Mayor Mick Cornett appointed me to serve on OKC’s Central Oklahoma Transportation and Parking Authority (COTPA) Board of Trustees.

As a transit trustee, I learned 79 percent of OKC’s roads ranked as “poor or mediocre condition.” Two years after my appointment, I wrote an editorial for NonDoc, asking my OKC neighbors to vote “yes” on our 2017 general obligation (GO) bond package and MAPS 3 penny sales tax extension. GO bond votes occur only every 10 years, offering a rare opportunity for residents to invest our property taxes into city infrastructure—including rebuilding crumbling streets—so students, workers, and seniors can move safely around our neighborhoods and city. This investment is important because, otherwise, OKC relies on sales tax as our primary funding source. Together with the extension of MAPS 3’s 2009 temporary penny sales tax, we called this election Better Streets, Safer City.

With the NonDoc editorial, I argued Better Streets would put our people to work, investing in critical infrastructure improvements for our streets, sidewalks, bridges, bike lanes, libraries, drainage system, public transportation system, parks and recreational facilities, our civic center, our downtown arena, our fire and police-training facilities, our traffic control system, and our city maintenance facilities. These investments, I wrote, strengthen our city, improving our residents’ quality of life.

Voters agreed, approving nearly $800 million in historic street improvements and other infrastructure projects, including our upcoming Bus Rapid Transit service.

Starting Fall 2023, Northwest Rapid will provide public transportation from covered bus stations every 15-20 minutes—7 days a week—for the first time in OKC’s history. This service builds on OKC’s past, running from downtown along our old streetcar route on Classen Boulevard, travelling west on NW Expressway, and turning around at Expressway and Meridian at a new park-and-ride near Lake Hefner.

2017’s Better Streets, Safer City also includes revitalization of Ward 2’s historic Belle Isle Library, $10 million in attainable, affordable, median-income housing for our city’s workforce, and streetscape improvements for historic commercial corridors such as Paseo, Uptown 23rd District, 39th Street District.

The next year in 2018, I fought for and worked with my transit board to provide Sunday bus service from our annual budget for the first time since the 1964 Voting Rights and 1965 Civil Rights Acts. On five bus routes, we added our city’s first night service til midnight.

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Hockey star released from team after calling LGBTQ+ fans ‘the bottom of the barrel of society’

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A mid-level professional ice hockey team in Illinois has released a player who posted a string of disgusting, anti-LGBTQ+ tweets.

And the player Louie Rowe has retweeted numerous more messages since he was let go by ECHL outfit the Peoria Rivermen, accusing LGBTQ+ people of grooming and raping children, as well as using them as prostitutes.

Rivermen co-owner Bart Rogers told the Lincoln Journal Star: “We are shocked, and we have immediately released Louie Rowe.”

Rowe’s retweets targeted LGBTQ+ people, calling them peadophiles, and trans people, who were labelled mentally ill.

In addition to anti-LGBTQ+ tweets, Rowe’s Twitter includes messages demonising other minority groups.

Rowe retweeted messages supporting the likes of anti-trans, right-wing media pundit Jordan Peterson, as well as anti-vax conspiracy theories and statements from infamous social media account LibsOfTikTok, which rabidly attacks LGBTQ+ educators and drag venues. 

On 12 January, another mid-level pro hockey team, the Kalamazoo Wings, sent a response to a Twitter user who said they were no longer going to attend games after the team released a rainbow logo on social media as part of a Pride Night event for LGBTQ+fans.

In response to the Wings’ message, Rowe wrote on Twitter: “I knew the Kwings were soft but I didn’t know they were gay, trans and soft.”

He went on to respond with an image that called Pride flags a “mental illness flag.” He also tweeted: “Imagine marketing towards the bottom of the barrel of society LMAO… what’s next? Felony offender night?”

Others took to Twitter to voice their disgust at Rowe’s comments, with one person writing: “Embarrassed that this guy ever put on a @FWKomets Sweater.”

Another person wrote: “What a turd. Enjoy the beer league hockey career – take the L – loser !!”

The Riverman’s co-owner, Bart Rogers, added: “Our organisation does not condone that language, nor do we support that point of view or behaviour. Those things do not represent the beliefs of our team, our partners nor our fans, nor the great sport we play. It does not represent the values of our organisation’.”

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Florida students may be forced to prove they can menstruate before playing sports

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Student athletes in Florida could be forced to turn in information about their menstrual history after an athletics association’s medical panel doubled down on its recommendation. 

The Florida High School Athletics Association’s (FHSAA) sports medicine advisory committee has stood by its recommendation to require high school athletes to submit information about their periods for each year they register to participate. 

The move comes after a suggestion that the association’s board adopt a national sports registration form – which makes menstrual information mandatory. 

Questions listed on the form include asking if players have had a period, when they first got their period, the date of their most recent one was and the regularity of their cycle during the previous 12 months. 

Notably, the main difference between the national form and Florida’s system, as the Palm Beach Post reports, is where the information is stored. 

The national form states that the part detailing athletes’ medical history – including their menstrual history – should not be turned into schools but remain with their physician. 

However, the FHSAA’s sports medicine committee recommended that all pages of the form be handed over to their schools.

The committee argues that school staff need all the information they can get on their athletes, in case of a medical emergency.

The committee’s recommendation now goes to the FHSAA’s board of directors, which is due to meet at the end of next month. 

The questions and the recommendation about where the information will go has come under fire from parents, medical professionals and abortion rights campaigners in recent weeks and months. 

Their concerns come amid shifts in access to abortions, the moral panic over transgender athletes and the risks posed by the digital age. 

PinkNews has widely covered the attacks on trans athletes in US schools, with some states barring transgender pupils‘ participation altogether.

Trans Olympian Caitlyn Jenner even doubled down on her opposition to trans women taking part, stating that “we have to protect women’s sports”.

Worries have also been aired that students’ menstrual information could be used to prosecute them if they terminate a pregnancy. 

In April 2022, Florida governor Ron DeSantis signed into law an anti-abortion measure which bans the procedure after 15 weeks of pregnancy – without exemptions for rape, incest or human trafficking. 

Such information could thus be used by courts to convict students if they have an abortion after the 15-week limit. 

Parents have also spoken out against the risk of children’s medical information being leaked or stolen in the event of a data breach. 

As the Palm Beach Post reported, huge swathes of student athletes’ registration forms have already been moved online and are stored by a third party.

Dr. Michael Haller, a paediatric endocrinologist based in Florida city of Gainesville, said: “I don’t see why [school districts] need access to that type of information. It sure as hell will give me pause to fill it out with my kid.”

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Soccer Star Jakub Jankto Comes Out as Gay

Czech football star Jakub Jankto has become the first active international men’s player to announce he is gay.

“Like everybody else, I have my strengths, I have my weaknesses; I have a family, I have my friends,” Jankto said in a video released on social media Monday.

“I have a job, which I have been doing it as best as I can, for years, with seriousness, professionalism and passion. Like everybody else, I also want to live my life in freedom without fears, without prejudice, without violence, but with love.

“I am homosexual, and I no longer want to hide myself.”

The 27-year-old midfielder is currently on loan at Sparta Prague from Spanish club Getafe.

The Czechia-based team posted a statement in support of the player, writing: “Jakub Jankto spoke openly about his sexual orientation with the club’s management, coach and teammates some time ago.

“No further comments. No more questions. You have our support. Live your life, Jakub. Nothing else matters.”

In a show of support, Getafe wrote: “Our maximum respect and unconditional support for our footballer, Jakub Jankto.”

Jankto has played 45 times for his country since making his debut in 2017, scoring four goals.

Footballing organizations also expressed their support for Jankto. UEFA, European football’s governing body, wrote: “Well done, Jakub. You’re a true inspiration, and European football is with you!”

Fifpro, the global union for players, tweeted: “Live your life, Jakub. Proud.”

Jankto joins Australian player Josh Cavallo as the only openly gay top-flight male footballers in the world. Jake Daniels, an 18-year-old striker for Blackpool in England’s second tier, came out in May 2022.

Thomas Hitzlsperger, a midfielder who played for Germany 52 times, came out after retiring.

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World Surf League reveals new policy on trans athletes

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The World Surf League has announced it is to adopt a new policy on transgender athletes.

The governing body announced it would adopt a policy recommended by the International Surfing Association (ISA) in a Friday (3 February) statement.

Under new guidelines, trans female athletes are required to maintain a testosterone level of less than 5 nmol/L (nanomoles per litre) for at least 12 months in order to compete in the women’s division. 

“The WSL is working hard to balance equity and fairness and it’s important for a policy to be in place,” WSL chief of sport Jessi Miley-Dyer said. “We recognise that the policy may need to evolve over time as we get feedback and see new research in the field.”

The ISA first recommended the policy in October 2022 following pressure from various groups due to the ongoing controversy surrounding trans athletic participation.

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The international organisation said it based the policy on guidance from its medical commission and vowed to reevaluate recommendations annually.

“The ISA is committed to the fundamental principles of fairness and equality of opportunity, and therefore this policy will be reevaluated annually as more research, information, and feedback becomes available.”

Miley-Dyer explained to The Inertia that the decision was made unanimously among WSL leadership following a review.

She added that there had been “a lot of conversations with a lot of different stakeholders groups” during deliberation on the matter, adding that WSL officials recognised the ISA “took a very deliberate approach.”

Tests to check for eligibility will not be done by World Surf League, but will be arranged by applicants looking to compete.

Those tests will then be sent to WSL medical officers, who will have a “confidential conversation” to discuss medical requirements.

Several experts and athletes have explained that creating a comprehensive trans policy is often incredibly tricky because there isn’t enough research to suggest whether there are advantages.

Trans male athletic swimmer Schuyler Bailar explained to PinkNews in 2022 that the often hostile debate on trans athletes participating in sports makes it difficult for progress to be made.

“There’s a really big problem with putting out rules right now on trans athletes because we don’t actually have robust research,” he said.

“Why? Because we’re not allowed to play.

“Not a lot of us have actually competed at elite level sports because of the amount of discrimination we experience.”

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Republican Attacks on LGBTQ Lives May Have Helped Elect Democrats

In December, President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which grants federal protections for same-sex and interracial couples if the Supreme Court strikes down its decisions requiring states to perform and recognize such marriages. While marriage equality is broadly popular, passage may well have been influenced by the fact that LGBTQ voters have become a powerful voting bloc for Democrats, who still control both the House and Senate.

That control will shift in January, when Republicans take control of the House after a midterm election. But their control will be slight — and LGBTQ voters probably limited their success.

LGBTQ voters have become a larger voting bloc — and they strongly lean toward Democrats

That voting bloc has grown over the past 30 years. In the early 1990s, voters who identified themselves as lesbian, gay or bisexual to exit pollsters made up 3 percent of the electorate; by 2022, 7 to 8 percent of voters identified themselves as LGBT. That expansion is consistent with the increasing proportion of U.S. adults identifying as LGBT.

Much as in previous elections, LGBT-identified voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates. AP VoteCast found that 73 percent said they did so; National Election Pool (NEP) found 84 percent said they did so. Meanwhile, both sources found that 53 percent of non-LGBT-identified voters supported Republican candidates. Had LGBTQ voters stayed home, some tight races would probably have had quite different results.

Republicans have increased their attacks on LGBTQ identities and rights

Why might LGBTQ voters flock so overwhelmingly toward Democrats? Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in this year’s Dobbs decision striking down Roe v. Wade that the court should also undo legal decisions affirming the marriage rights of same-sex couples. Other signs suggest that the court’s conservative majority, all appointed by Republicans, will limit LGBTQ rights in upcoming cases.

Meanwhile, in the past two years, numerous Republican-controlled state legislatures and Republican governors backed anti-transgender and anti-gay laws and regulations. That included Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s order to child welfare agencies to investigate parents who affirm their child’s transgender identity. And it included Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s “don’t say gay” law that bans any mention of LGBTQ lives in schools, defining that as predatory propaganda.

Meanwhile, prominent conservatives and Republicans have been using harsh rhetoric against any support for LGBTQ people. For instance, Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-Ga.) has referred to drag performers as child predators, and Fox News host Tucker Carlson has called on his viewers to attack anyone who supports gender-affirming health care for transgender youth or allowing school libraries to include books with LGBTQ characters.

Prominent rhetoric like this has been linked with increases in anti-LGBTQ extremist threats and attacks like those against pride events, drag shows, hospitals with gender clinics and Club Q in Colorado Springs.

Attacking LGBTQ rights did not help Republicans in the 2022 election and may have backfired

In the most recent election, at least 21 candidates and political action committees running in 16 states ran anti-transgender television ads as part of their campaigns. Many lost their races, including Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Kari Lake and Blake Masters in Arizona, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia; other anti-transgender candidates lost school board elections. Some political commentators have questioned whether focusing on transgender youth was winning over voters. However, others won, including Abbott in Texas, DeSantis in Florida, Gov. Kevin Stitt in Oklahoma, Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia and Gov. Bill Lee in Tennessee.

At the same time, a new “rainbow wave” brought a historically high number of out LGBTQ candidates into office. Some newly elected transgender candidates even said anti-LGBTQ politics motivated them to run for office.

Abortion mattered to more voters than did LGBTQ rights — but LGBTQ rights mattered a lot to some

Protecting abortion rights pushed more voters to the polls than did any of the rhetoric against LGBTQ lives. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s analysis of AP VoteCast data, about 4 in 10 voters said that the Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade strongly influenced their decision about whether to go to the polls. According to the NEP, 60 percent of voters said abortion should be legal, and of these voters, 73 percent supported the Democratic candidate. Among the 37 percent of voters who said that abortion should be illegal, 89 percent supported the Republican candidate.

In the NEP poll, voters were also asked whether societal values about sexual orientation and gender identity were changing for the better, worse or neither. Voters divided on this: Fifty percent said values have changed for the worse, while the other half perceived either no change or saw change for the better. Those who said society was changing for the worse overwhelmingly said they supported Republican candidates; those who said for the better or neither overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates.

When I conducted a statistical comparison to see which issue appears to have influenced vote choices, abortion came up the clear winner. I did this by comparing the joint roles race, gender, and opinions about LGBT topics or abortion had on predicting vote choices. Both opinions about abortion and LGBT topics outperformed gender or race in predicting vote choices; however, views on abortion played a stronger role than LGBT topics. The Dobbs decision appears to have been a political earthquake, changing the results of the 2022 midterms. However, anti-LGBTQ politics appears to be mobilizing more LGBTQ voters than voters who oppose LGBTQ rights.

What next?

These two trends — advances in and attacks on LGBTQ rights — are part of the larger emerging divide into two different Americas. Republican-leaning states like Idaho, Alabama and South Dakota have enacted or are considering anti-LGBTQ bills this and next year. In Democratic-leaning states — including California, where LGBTQ members make up over 10 percent of the legislature — governments are likely to enact policies protecting LGBTQ people. That’s true even though LGBTQ people live all across the United States.

The divide between abortion restrictions and abortion protections looks quite similar, as conservative states move to restrict individual autonomy on sexuality and gender more broadly while liberal states work to protect that autonomy.

In other words, Americans may be in for more of the same.

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