After this strange and challenging American summer, what will fall have in store for us?
It has been an ominous and strange summer in America to say the least. It’s been a season where the shadows of a dictatorship grew longer and more ominous. Donald Trump’s reign is rolling right along, as the rhythm of daily life feels like the unraveling of a venomous snake ready to strike.
Each headline seems to be worse than the next. Each decision or action by the courts, Congress, or the White House pushes us further into territory we once thought was unimaginable and unthinkable.
From June through September, the country was hit with wave after wave of political earthquakes. The pressure to release the Epstein files exploded, only to be dodged by the House adjourning early in August, fleeing rather than face a vote. But, that’s about to end. You can’t run away forever.
The Supreme Court handed Trump carte blanche in a series of rulings that elevated him above the law, free from constitutional constraint. While the health of our country deteriorates, Trump’s own health has become a subject of whispered speculation after unexplained bruising on his hand and swelling in his legs, met with evasions and untrustworthy explanations from the White House.
And then came the assassination of far-right activist Charlie Kirk, a grim marker of just how combustible and dangerous the environment has become.
This was the summer of secrecy, impunity, and violence, and I think it’s a preview of darker things to come. As we step into fall there’s a growing chill in the air that is not just seasonal. It is political, cultural, and for so many of us, deeply personal and heartbreaking.
If summer was strange, fall may be catastrophic. Here are six things to watch:
Trump’s assault on the freedom of speech
Trump’s war against the media is entering a new phase. The FCC chair recently declared the agency is “not done” with efforts to punish outlets that fail to meet the regime’s nefarious standards of “civility.”
King Trump wants to silence dissent, and if you don’t, his FCC will pull your license. We’ve already watched Colbert and Kimmel be shoved off the late-night stage. NBC’s Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers are next in Trump’s crosshairs.
Comcast, which owns NBC, has a mysterious relationship with Trump, but they won’t piss him off now. The spin-off of MSNBC was done to protect themselves. There’s no doubt about that.
Will it sacrifice Fallon and Meyers to stay in his good graces? Of course, they will, because money always talks, and at the end of the day, it’s all about the money.
This fall could…scratch that…will mark the end of late-night comedy as we know it, replaced by silence where satire once thrived. After Kimmel, I think Trump feels emboldened, and he will get NBC to fold on Fallon and Myers. Trump will keep pushing without any recrimination.
Trump is trying to outdo Vladimir Putin at the speed at which he’s stifling dissent in the media.
The public health crisis no one is ready for
This fall should be a time when families get vaccines, flu and COVID shots. Instead, confusion will reign. The Senate-confirmed CDC director has resigned, and RFK Jr.’s grip on vaccine policy has left the nation paralyzed. His vaccine committee meetings this week were an unmitigated disaster.
Misinformation, parental naivety or defiance, and governmental neglect will collide with holiday travel and family gatherings. A flu outbreak of historic proportions is coming. Will Trump care? No. For an aspiring autocrat, a sick and weakened population is easier to control.
The Epstein files finally force a reckoning
Once the special election in Arizona is settled next week and the new presumptive Democrat sworn in, Reps. Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie will have the 219th signature to discharge the Epstein files bill and bring it to a vote on the House floor.
That means a vote, and likely passage, in the House. The Senate will be under enormous pressure to also pass the bill. My guess is that Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Joni Ernst will be yes votes, along with Bill Cassidy, and perhaps a few more Republican surprises.
Then it goes to Trump, who faces a choice: either sign the bill and allow the files to come out, or refuse and expose his disdain for accountability (i.e. accountability for himself).
My prediction is that he won’t sign it. He believes he’s untouchable. But refusing will ignite a showdown over whether Congress has the spine to override him, and this is where Trump wins. There will be enormous pressure on wavering Republicans, and the override will fall short.
Will we ever see the Epstein files? Not as long as Trump continues to control the justice department and congressional Republicans.
Related: House Oversight chair calls Robert Garcia ‘drama queen’ for releasing Epstein birthday book
Trump’s health problems come to a head
This summer we saw the swelling ankles, the bruised hand, the sluggish appearances, none more unsettling than his mouth droop and sleepiness at the 9/11 Pentagon memorial. The explanations about handshakes and aspirin as the reason for his hand bruise are fooling no one.
He is almost 80. Health issues don’t just disappear. We saw it with Joe Biden, and you see it in your aging parents and grandparents. Trump isn’t going to suddenly become healthy. This fall, I think that the charade will crack.
And when it does, the White House will undoubtedly try to hide the truth. A man clinging to power while physically failing is a dangerous combination, especially one who yearns to be a dictator.
And in a related prediction, JD Vance will continue to be the biggest jerk we’ve ever had as Vice President, and that is saying a lot!
The aftermath of the Kirk assassination fuels queer hate
The shooting death of Charlie Kirk has already unleashed a toxic wave of anti-LGBTQ+ scapegoating. Transgender people are being slandered by national, state, and local media and right-wing outlets.
Trump and his allies were already dismantling DEI, stripping protections, and erasing queer people from government websites and public life. Now, with a martyr narrative to exploit, the flames of hate are roaring.
Hate crimes are rising. Democrats, meanwhile, appear timid, unwilling, or unable to counter the lies with forceful truth. Inexplicably, 95 Democrats voted for a House measure to honor Kirk. Those nearly 100 lawmakers turned their backs on women, queer folks, and people of color.
This fall could mark an escalation in the campaign to erase LGBTQ+ Americans from cultural and civic life, the likes of which we may not have experienced since the pre-Stonewall era. I don’t see an off-ramp of the invective of hate that is about to shower on LGBTQ+ people.
All told, this new season is not one of healing or moderation. This is a season of unraveling. The leaves may fall, but so too will institutions, norms, and rights we once thought permanent and took for granted.
If summer was strange, fall promises to be worse. Much worse, and I’m not sure America is ready for it.