Forecasting Equality: Expected Changes to LGBTQ Policies in 2026
| Since 2020, political attacks on LGBTQ people, and especially transgender people, have escalated — but LGBTQ people and allies have also fought back and won important victories. This forecast takes stock of recent years in LGBTQ legislation at the state level and suggests what may lie ahead in 2026.Anti-LGBTQ Policies to WatchPro-LGBTQ Policies to WatchBallot Initiatives |
| Given the scale of anti-LGBTQ political attacks over recent years, much attention has been paid to these harmful, hateful, and intentional efforts, and rightfully so. However, it is also important to note the consistent victories and pro-LGBTQ efforts unfolding across the country. This map shows that, in 2025 alone, at least 22 states and Puerto Rico saw anti-LGBTQ policy developments only, 14 states saw pro-LGBTQ developments only, and five states saw both types of developments. These developments may include efforts beyond legislation, such as court rulings, executive orders, and more. |
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| This reflects a notable and longer-term trend in recent years, where states’ approaches to LGBTQ policy are increasingly polarized as one set of states enacts protective laws, while another set focuses on harmful, discriminatory ones—ultimately leading to at least two very different Americas for LGBTQ people. Anti-LGBTQ Policies to WatchPolitical attacks on LGBTQ people have escalated since 2020, and these attacks affect virtually every aspect of life. In 2026, expect these attacks to continue, including these specific trends: Expect continued attacks on transgender people’s access to restrooms. Bathroom restrictions were among the top types of anti-LGBTQ bills that were enacted into law in 2025, and already in 2026 at least 23 states have a bathroom bill just in school settings alone —in addition to broader reaching bans, like the recently proposed bill by the Kansas legislature which used anti-democratic tactics to advance the bill to the governor. What’s more, in recent years, bathroom bans have often been used as vehicles to advance other anti-transgender provisions in the same bill. In Louisiana, Utah, and West Virginia, for example, the states’ now-enacted bathroom bans also included a dangerous gender regulation law enabling further discrimination against transgender people. Expect this combination-attack tactic to also continue. Expect attacks on health care for transgender people to continue and expand in their scope. This includes adults and includes via public funding bans. For example, bills have already been introduced in Oklahoma to ban such care for all people regardless of age (and to make providing such medical care a felony crime) and in West Virginia to extend the state’s existing ban from under 18 to under 21. Expect to see growing attacks on the ability of transgender people to update their gender markers on driver’s licenses and birth certificates — and even proposals to reverse previously updated IDs. Historically, states across the country were slowly moving toward improved processes for both forms of ID, but recent years’ attacks on transgender people have reversed that trend, with the first total bans on changes to driver’s licenses being enacted in 2023 in Tennessee and Kansas. And, while as recently as 2021 only one state had a total ban on changes to birth certificates, now nine states do. Expect efforts toward total bans to continue. Bills calling for both total bans and reversals of legally updated IDs have already been introduced in Kansas and Indiana, and additional bills calling for total bans to birth certificate changes have already been introduced in Mississippi, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and likely more states in the coming days of session. Expect an increase in both drag and flag-related bills. Bills attempting to restrict drag performances were initially popularized in 2023, but few became law and those that did were quickly struck down as unconstitutional. However, in the wake of other forms of anti-transgender attacks over the years, politicians now appear to be revisiting these policies, perhaps with hopes that opposition to these bills has lessened. In 2025, a small number of bills were introduced to prevent government buildings and/or public schools from displaying rainbow flags or other symbols associated with LGBTQ people. Some of these bills explicitly prohibited LGBTQ-related symbols, while others effectively did so by prohibiting any flags other than official government flags. While relatively few such bills were introduced last year, several states enacted these laws, and the relative success rate of these bills suggests this effort will continue and expand in 2026. Pro-LGBTQ Policies to WatchAs MAP has previously reported, despite the ongoing attacks on LGBTQ people across the country, clear progress continues to be made in at least some states, and LGBTQ people continue to win in a variety of ways. In 2025, some of the clearest positive trends in state legislatures were securing protections for parenting, marriage, and family formation; shield laws protecting transgender health care and related data privacy; and improved access to IDs. In 2026, we expect these same trends to continue: Protections for Relationships and Parental Recognition Last year, seven states improved their legal protections in different ways for parenting, family formation, and marriage equality. These efforts will continue, especially given the many varying ways that parenting rights exist in state law. Protections for Transgender Health Care As both state and federal governments continue their attacks on health care for transgender people — including repeated efforts to hijack private medical information, such as in Los Angeles, Seattle, Missouri, and beyond — expect states with shield laws to expand protections for private health data and access to medically necessary health care. Improved Processes for Legal Name Changes and Gender Marker Updates Last year, at least four states improved their processes for legal name changes or updating gender markers on identity documents. This year, we expect these efforts to continue, especially given heightened attacks on these same processes in other states, as discussed above. In states pursuing ID protections, expect efforts to codify existing good processes (or adding improved processes) into state statute (i.e., via legislation). Putting these modernized processes into statute rather than only agency policy will make them harder to change in the event of future attacks on these protections. LGBTQ Rights on the November BallotFinally, ballot initiatives will be a central part of LGBTQ politics in 2026 as part of the broader midterm election season. In Missouri, Amendment 3 will be on the November ballot. This measure would amend the state’s constitution to ban both abortion and medically necessary health care for transgender youth — all despite the fact that Missourians just voted in 2024 to legalize abortion in the state and the fact that there is already a ban on medical care for transgender youth in Missouri law This marks the first time that a statewide ban on medically necessary health care for transgender youth will be put directly to voters. The outcome of this ballot initiative may have significant implications far beyond Missouri because a successful ban may lead to similar anti-transgender ballot measures in other states, while a defeat may deter them. Additional anti-transgender measures have been proposed but have not yet been cleared for the ballot in Colorado, Maine, Nevada, and Washington, with potentially more to come in other states as well Pro-LGBTQ measures are also under consideration in Oregon and Ohio, all of which are still undergoing signature collection. Additional pro-LGBTQ measures are under consideration in Vermont and Virginia but would require further action by the state legislature this session before they could move to the ballot. |