MAP Movement Advancement Project

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Forecasting Equality: Expected Changes to LGBTQ Policies in 2026

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Since 2020, political attacks on LGBTQ people, and especially transgender people, have escalated — but LGBTQ people and allies have also fought back and won important victories. This forecast takes stock of recent years in LGBTQ legislation at the state level and suggests what may lie ahead in 2026.Anti-LGBTQ Policies to WatchPro-LGBTQ Policies to WatchBallot Initiatives
Given the scale of anti-LGBTQ political attacks over recent years, much attention has been paid to these harmful, hateful, and intentional efforts, and rightfully so. However, it is also important to note the consistent victories and pro-LGBTQ efforts unfolding across the country.

This map shows that, in 2025 alone, at least 22 states and Puerto Rico saw anti-LGBTQ policy developments only, 14 states saw pro-LGBTQ developments only, and five states saw both types of developments. These developments may include efforts beyond legislation, such as court rulings, executive orders, and more.
This reflects a notable and longer-term trend in recent years, where states’ approaches to LGBTQ policy are increasingly polarized as one set of states enacts protective laws, while another set focuses on harmful, discriminatory ones—ultimately leading to at least two very different Americas for LGBTQ people.
 Anti-LGBTQ Policies to WatchPolitical attacks on LGBTQ people have escalated since 2020, and these attacks affect virtually every aspect of life. In 2026, expect these attacks to continue, including these specific trends:
 
Expect continued attacks on transgender people’s access to restrooms.

Bathroom restrictions were among the top types of anti-LGBTQ bills that were enacted into law in 2025, and already in 2026 at least 23 states have a bathroom bill just in school settings alone —in addition to broader reaching bans, like the recently proposed bill by the Kansas legislature which used anti-democratic tactics to advance the bill to the governor. What’s more, in recent years, bathroom bans have often been used as vehicles to advance other anti-transgender provisions in the same bill. In Louisiana, Utah, and West Virginia, for example, the states’ now-enacted bathroom bans also included a dangerous gender regulation law enabling further discrimination against transgender people. Expect this combination-attack tactic to also continue.

Expect attacks on health care for transgender people to continue and expand in their scope.
This includes adults and includes via public funding bans. For example, bills have already been introduced in Oklahoma to ban such care for all people regardless of age (and to make providing such medical care a felony crime) and in West Virginia to extend the state’s existing ban from under 18 to under 21.

Expect to see growing attacks on the ability of transgender people to update their gender markers on driver’s licenses and birth certificates — and even proposals to reverse previously updated IDs.
Historically, states across the country were slowly moving toward improved processes for both forms of ID, but recent years’ attacks on transgender people have reversed that trend, with the first total bans on changes to driver’s licenses being enacted in 2023 in Tennessee and Kansas. And, while as recently as 2021 only one state had a total ban on changes to birth certificates, now nine states do. Expect efforts toward total bans to continue.

Bills calling for both total bans and reversals of legally updated IDs have already been introduced in Kansas and Indiana, and additional bills calling for total bans to birth certificate changes have already been introduced in Mississippi, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and likely more states in the coming days of session.

Expect an increase in both drag and flag-related bills.
Bills attempting to restrict drag performances were initially popularized in 2023, but few became law and those that did were quickly struck down as unconstitutional. However, in the wake of other forms of anti-transgender attacks over the years, politicians now appear to be revisiting these policies, perhaps with hopes that opposition to these bills has lessened.

In 2025, a small number of bills were introduced to prevent government buildings and/or public schools from displaying rainbow flags or other symbols associated with LGBTQ people. Some of these bills explicitly prohibited LGBTQ-related symbols, while others effectively did so by prohibiting any flags other than official government flags. While relatively few such bills were introduced last year, several states enacted these laws, and the relative success rate of these bills suggests this effort will continue and expand in 2026.

 Pro-LGBTQ Policies to WatchAs MAP has previously reported, despite the ongoing attacks on LGBTQ people across the country, clear progress continues to be made in at least some states, and LGBTQ people continue to win in a variety of ways.

In 2025, some of the clearest positive trends in state legislatures were securing protections for parenting, marriage, and family formation; shield laws protecting transgender health care and related data privacy; and improved access to IDs. In 2026, we expect these same trends to continue:

Protections for Relationships and Parental Recognition

Last year, seven states improved their legal protections in different ways for parenting, family formation, and marriage equality. These efforts will continue, especially given the many varying ways that parenting rights exist in state law.

Protections for Transgender Health Care

As both state and federal governments continue their attacks on health care for transgender people — including repeated efforts to hijack private medical information, such as in Los Angeles, Seattle, Missouri, and beyond — expect states with shield laws to expand protections for private health data and access to medically necessary health care.

Improved Processes for Legal Name Changes and Gender Marker Updates

Last year, at least four states improved their processes for legal name changes or updating gender markers on identity documents. This year, we expect these efforts to continue, especially given heightened attacks on these same processes in other states, as discussed above. In states pursuing ID protections, expect efforts to codify existing good processes (or adding improved processes) into state statute (i.e., via legislation). Putting these modernized processes into statute rather than only agency policy will make them harder to change in the event of future attacks on these protections.

LGBTQ Rights on the November BallotFinally, ballot initiatives will be a central part of LGBTQ politics in 2026 as part of the broader midterm election season.

In Missouri, Amendment 3 will be on the November ballot. This measure would amend the state’s constitution to ban both abortion and medically necessary health care for transgender youth — all despite the fact that Missourians just voted in 2024 to legalize abortion in the state and the fact that there is already a ban on medical care for transgender youth in Missouri law

This marks the first time that a statewide ban on medically necessary health care for transgender youth will be put directly to voters. The outcome of this ballot initiative may have significant implications far beyond Missouri because a successful ban may lead to similar anti-transgender ballot measures in other states, while a defeat may deter them.

Additional anti-transgender measures have been proposed but have not yet been cleared for the ballot in Colorado, Maine, Nevada, and Washington, with potentially more to come in other states as well

Pro-LGBTQ measures are also under consideration in Oregon and Ohio, all of which are still undergoing signature collection. Additional pro-LGBTQ measures are under consideration in Vermont and Virginia but would require further action by the state legislature this session before they could move to the ballot.

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NEW SURVEY REVEALS DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR LGBTQ ADULTS SINCE NOVEMBER 2024

LGBTQ adults as a whole—but transgender and nonbinary adults especially—are experiencing an extraordinarily difficult and stressful political environment, leading to significant impacts on their everyday lives. The Movement Advancement Project (MAP) conducted a nationally representative survey with NORC at the University of Chicago to better understand the impacts of recent political developments. Survey findings show that the majority of LGBTQ adults report harm, mistreatment, and other negative experiences since the 2024 presidential election.

Click below to navigate this brief. Note that each section concludes with a set of arrows (↑ ↑ ↑) that redirect back to the table of contents.

contents

Recommended citation

Movement Advancement Project. October 2025. New Survey Reveals Dramatic Changes for LGBTQ Adults Since November 2024.www.mapresearch.org/2025-norc-survey-report.

Introduction

Since the November 2024 election—and especially in the months since the beginning of President Trump’s second term—anti-LGBTQ rhetoric has increased, violence has escalated, and legislation, executive orders, and other targeted actions have drastically altered the lives of LGBTQ people, especially transgender people.

This survey offers a nationally representative snapshot of LGBTQ adults’ reported experiences, concerns, and actions following the November 2024 election. The results show that LGBTQ adults as a whole—but transgender and nonbinary adults especially—are experiencing an extraordinarily difficult and stressful political environment, leading to significant impacts on their everyday lives. The survey documents the urgent and often life-changing steps or decisions LGBTQ people have taken to protect themselves or their families since the November 2024 election. It also shows that LGBTQ people reported increasing their efforts to participate in or protect their community in the face of anti-LGBTQ politics or laws.  

Methodology

This brief describes the results of a national survey of 1,055 LGBTQ adults (ages 18+) in the United States, including 111 transgender and nonbinary adults. This online survey was conducted by NORC’s AmeriSpeak panel and ran May 29 – June 13, 2025. Funded and operated by NORC at the University of Chicago, AmeriSpeak® is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the US household population. Randomly selected US households are sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection from the NORC National Sample Frame, and then contacted by US mail, email, telephone, and field interviewers (face to face). AmeriSpeak panelists participate in NORC studies or studies conducted by NORC on behalf of governmental agencies, academic researchers, and media and commercial organizations.

All differences shown in this brief (e.g., differences in responses between all LGBTQ respondents and transgender and nonbinary respondents) are statistically significant unless otherwise noted.

Recent LGBTQ-Related Politics Lead to Major Life Decisions

The Majority of LGBTQ People, and Even Higher Numbers of Transgender People, Have Made Major Life Decisions Due to Recent LGBTQ-Related Politics

Since November 2024, the majority (57%) of LGBTQ people—including 84% of transgender and nonbinary people—have made significant life decisions or taken steps in response to LGBTQ-related politics or laws (Figure 1). These include considering or actually moving to a different state; considering or actually finding a different job; attempting to update legal name or gender markers on identity documents; crossing state lines to receive medical care, and much more.  

Across nearly every measure, transgender and nonbinary people reported taking these actions at much higher rates, sometimes even twice or three times as often (Figure 1). For example: 

  • 55% of transgender respondents have taken steps to be less visible as an LGBTQ person in their community, such as at work or school, compared to 24% of all LGBTQ respondents. 
  • 43% of transgender people have considered moving to a different state, compared to 25% of all LGBTQ people.
    • And, 9% of transgender people report they’ve actually moved to a different state since November 2024, as have 5% of all LGBTQ people. 
  • 36% of transgender people have considered finding a different job or place of work, compared to 18% of LGBTQ people.
    • And, 22% of transgender people have actually changed jobs or workplaces since November 2024, as have 11% of all LGBTQ people. 

These are remarkably sobering findings that reflect the fear, anxiety, and uncertainty that many LGBTQ people and their families across the country are currently facing—and the very real and difficult choices about their lives that they are being forced to consider. This is especially true given the relatively short period of time considered by the survey (November 2024 to June 2025). This suggests that, as political attacks on LGBTQ people continue, these numbers may grow even higher.  

LGBTQ People Also Report Taking Actions to Participate in and Protect Their Community, Not Only Themselves or Their Families

Figure 1 shows the important and often significant steps or decisions LGBTQ people have taken to protect themselves or their families since the November 2024 election. It also shows that LGBTQ people reported taking various actions to participate in or protect their community, in response to LGBTQ politics or laws—and again, transgender and nonbinary people reported these actions at much higher rates. For example:  

  • 21% of LGBTQ people—and 38% of transgender people—have joined or started participating in LGBTQ community or recreational opportunities where they live. 
  • 20% of LGBTQ people—and 42% of transgender people—have joined or started participating in LGBTQ advocacy or activism where they live. 
  • 18% of LGBTQ people—and 31% of transgender people—have taken steps to be more visible as an LGBTQ person in their community. 

Figure 1

Nearly 1 in 10 Transgender People Report Moving to a New State

As shown in Figure 1, nearly one in 10 (9%) transgender adults in the survey have moved to a different state due to LGBTQ-related laws or politics, as have 5% of LGBTQ adults. Again, given that the survey only covered a relatively short time frame of November 2024 to June 2025, this is a remarkable impact.  

This finding for transgender adults is also considerably higher than in other recent surveys. For example, a 2022 survey found that 5% of transgender adults had moved to a new state due to transgender-related laws,i and a 2023 survey similarly found that 4% of transgender young people (ages 13-24) had moved to a new state due to LGBTQ-related laws or politics.ii 

Given that anti-LGBTQ political attacks have escalated over time, both in volume and in severity,iii and that various polls over time show growing numbers of transgender people reporting moving or considering moving due to these attacks, this suggests that these numbers may continue to grow in the future as political attacks continue. 

Among all LGBTQ respondents who moved or considered moving due to LGBTQ-related laws (n=255), their top factors in deciding whether or where to move were: 

  • overall quality of life (94% said this factored into their decision to some or a great extent), 
  • affordability and economic factors (93%), 
  • a state’s LGBTQ legal protections and rights (92%), and 
  • a state’s LGBTQ community and allies (91%).  

Mistreatment and Other Negative Experiences Related to
Being LGBTQ

The Majority of LGBTQ People Report Discrimination and Harassment Since the November 2024 Election

As shown in Figure 2, the motivation for the life decisions and other steps LGBTQ people report taking due to LGBTQ-related politics are well-founded: 60% of LGBTQ people, including 82% of transgender and nonbinary people, report that they or an immediate family member have had at least one negative experience related to being LGBTQ since the November 2024 election.  
 
Notably, for every experience other than seeing anti-LGBTQ political ads, transgender respondents report these experiences nearly twice as often as all LGBTQ respondents. And, a majority of transgender and nonbinary respondents report that, since November 2024 alone, they or an immediate family member have been discriminated against or mistreated by another person due to being LGBTQ (56%), or have been harassed online about being LGBTQ (53%).  

Figure 2

Harms to Health and Well-Being

The Majority of LGBTQ People, and Even More Transgender People, Report Recent Politics Have Harmed Their Health & Well-Being

The survey further shows that LGBTQ people, and especially transgender people, report that recent anti-LGBTQ policies and rhetoric have negatively impacted their mental health (Figure 3), and that politics in general have negatively impacted their overall well-being (Figure 4). Both figures also show that transgender people are especially likely to report more intense impacts than LGBTQ respondents overall.  

Figure 3

Note: Differences shown here (between all LGBTQ respondents and transgender and nonbinary respondents) are statistically significant for “very negative” and the net/total negative responses. 

Figure 4

Notes: Differences shown here (between all LGBTQ respondents and transgender and nonbinary respondents) are statistically significant for “a lot” across all three levels (federal, state, and local), and for the net/total response for state politics only. 

Figure 4 further shows that a large majority of both LGBTQ people in general and transgender people specifically say that politics at every level – federal, state, and local – has negatively impacted their overall well-being in 2025. Respondents reported that political developments at various levels have negatively impacted their well-being, regardless of whether proposed legislation was enacted. This is especially important to note given that, on average, roughly 92% of anti-LGBTQ bills do not become law, but as shown above, they can still cause clear harm.  

Importantly, transgender and nonbinary people are more likely (84%) than LGBTQ people in general (73%) to report that state politics specifically harmed their well-being (Figure 4), whereas rates for all LGBTQ respondents as a whole were similar for federal and local politics. This is consistent with recent years’ escalating state-level attacks on the LGBTQ community, which have especially targeted transgender people.  

Additionally, transgender and nonbinary people were more likely to report that every level of politics – federal, state, and local – has negatively impacted their overall well-being “a lot,” a difference in intensity of impact that may otherwise be obscured by the similar total answers. For example, while transgender and LGBTQ respondents overall report similar rates of being generally negatively impacted by federal politics this year (88% and 86%, respectively), 48% of transgender respondents say they were negatively impacted “a lot” compared to 37% of all LGBTQ respondents.   

Emotional Responses to Trump’s Anti-LGBTQ Actions

Most LGBTQ People Report Feeling Disgust, Anger, Anxiety, and Fear in Response to Trump’s Anti-LGBTQ Actions Since Inauguration—And Worry for the Impacts on Their Families 

LGBTQ people expressed a range of negative emotions about Trump’s anti-LGBTQ actions since he took office again. Consistent with the pattern throughout this brief, transgender and nonbinary respondents reported these emotions and concerns at even higher rates than LGBTQ respondents as a whole—and more intense reactions as well.  

Figure 5 shows that six in 10 LGBTQ people (60%) say they are worried about the impacts of Trump’s anti-LGBTQ actions on them or their families. That number rises to nearly nine in 10 for transgender people (86%)—a difference driven further by the intensity of that worry, with 60% of transgender people saying they are “very worried” compared to 36% of LGBTQ people saying the same.

Figure 5

Note: Differences shown here (between all LGBTQ respondents and transgender and nonbinary respondents) are statistically significant for “very worried” and the net/total worried responses. 

Figure 6 shows specific emotional reactions, with 70% or more of all LGBTQ respondents saying Trump’s anti-LGBTQ actions make them feel disgusted (80%), angry (77%), worried (76%), anxious (71%), and afraid (70%).  

Among transgender respondents, reported rates of all these emotions were even higher, with more than 80% of transgender respondents reporting each. The top reported emotions were also different among transgender respondents, with worry, disgust, and fear topping their list. 

As with previous findings in this brief, the differences between transgender respondents and LGBTQ respondents overall were also visible in the intensity of these emotional reactions. For example, not only did transgender people report higher levels of being afraid overall (87% vs. 70%), but they also reported much higher levels of being “very afraid” (62% vs. 46%), rather than “somewhat afraid” (25% vs. 24%).  

Figure 6

Note: The survey also asked about more positive reactions such as excitement, happiness, optimism, and pride, but 10% or fewer respondents reported feeling any of these.  

Presidential and Governmental Approval Rating

Among LGBTQ People, Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Extremely Low—As Is Approval of State Governments’ Handling of LGBTQ Issues 

Only 10% of LGBTQ people in this survey approved of how Trump is handling his job overall. Even fewer (6%) approve of how he is handling LGBTQ issues specifically.  

While LGBTQ respondents have a much higher approval rating for their state government’s handling of LGBTQ issues (36%) compared to Trump’s handling of them (6% approve), this is still a notably low approval. This speaks to the widespread and ongoing attacks on LGBTQ people in state legislatures across the country today.  

Clear Relationship Between States’ LGBTQ Policies and Approval of State Government’s Handling of LGBTQ Issues 

As shown in Figure 7, there are clear differences in approval of state governments across regions of the country. There is also a clear relationship between LGBTQ respondents’ approval of how their state government is handling LGBTQ issues and the state’s actual LGBTQ policies (Figure 7).  

Figure 7 breaks LGBTQ respondents out into regions of the country and compares those approval ratings to MAP’s LGBTQ Policy Scores. The pattern is clear: regions with higher LGBTQ policy scores (i.e., more inclusive and protective laws) also have higher approval of how state governments are handling LGBTQ issues.

Figure 7

Note: Survey responses by region, compared to regional averages on MAP’s Overall LGBTQ Policy Tally Score (max 49 points), as of 8/25/25. Regions as defined by U.S. Census Bureau. 

Top Factors in the 2024 Presidential Election

LGBTQ Issues and Health Care Were Top Factors in the 2024 Election for LGBTQ People 

In the 2024 presidential election, 68% of LGBTQ respondents in this survey reported voting for Kamala Harris, 11% for Donald Trump, 4% for someone else, and 15% said they did not vote. 

When asked what three topics or issues had the greatest impact on their vote choice in the 2024 presidential election, responses were generally similar across both LGBTQ people overall and transgender people specifically, but with a few notable differences.  

For all LGBTQ people, the top three issues were LGBTQ rights (42% of respondents said this was a top three issue for their vote choice in 2024), economy/inflation (36%), and health care (35%).  

For transgender and nonbinary people, the top issue was also LGBTQ rights, but at a much higher rate, with 67% of transgender and nonbinary people saying this was a top three issue for their vote choice in 2024. This was followed by women’s rights (33%) and then health care (32%).  

Conclusion 

The survey highlights the clear and ongoing impacts of the current political environment on LGBTQ people, and especially transgender and nonbinary people, across the country.  

The majority of LGBTQ people—and, consistently, even higher rates of transgender and nonbinary people—reported significant and often negative impacts across the board, such as making major life decisions due to LGBTQ-related laws or politics, experiencing harassment or discrimination, harm to their mental health or overall well-being, and much more.   

As political attacks on LGBTQ people by federal, state, and local governments continue into the future, it is likely that these impacts will only accumulate. While the survey illustrates some of the many ways LGBTQ people are taking action to protect not only themselves but also their broader community, it is vital that people beyond LGBTQ people join in these efforts to protect their LGBTQ neighbors, friends, and family members, and to stop the ongoing attacks on LGBTQ people.